Not Really Stealthmode

Not Really Stealthmode

Francine Hardaway  //  Self-described geek-to-human translator Francine Hardaway bought her first Apple product in the (very) early 80s, abandoned it for the supposedly portable Compaq a few years later, and returned to Macs soon after. By the late 80s, she was haranguing her daughters' journalism teachers for continuing to make the students literally cut and paste up the school newspaper copy when desktop publishing already existed, and had sacrificed their high school popularity for their greater good. She also tried to give them fax machines for Christmas, which they returned.Her passion for hardware died when the Internet "came along" and she realized the future was in software. Her first real experience with the power of online communities was in 1996, when insomnia after her husband's death led her to discover Widownet, followed a discreet year later by Match.com.In the early 90s, she made herself less popular with her friends by insisting that they all learn about email and the Internet, although they all assured her they would be dead before they needed to know it. She started a weekly email list that evolved over the years, and is now known by people who still don't read blogs as "Francine's blog." Francine's real blog — for those "in the know"–is at Stealthmode Blog. She can also be found on LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter, Plurk, Identi.ca, and every other social network someone tells her about.

And, oh by the way, she is a serial entrepreneur who counsels and invests in other startup entrepreneurs at Stealthmode Partners. She can tell you how long it REALLY takes to get beyond those early adopters.

Feb 6 / 1:32pm

Do Jobs Numbers Matter?

I'm not an economist, and I'm not an expert. But even I can guess that the jobs numbers we see every month and bet our investment programs and 401ks on are bunk, or maybe junk.

Why? Because yesterday I heard how the government counts them. The numbers never match, because two different methods are used that can be out of sync. Non-farm payrolls, the first method, surveys businesses on whether they hired or laid off. The Bureau of Labor statistics counts them, excluding government employees, employees of non-profits, employees of private households, and farmworkers. Supposedly, that's 80% of all workers.  The other 20%, apparently, are the government and non-profit workers, and your nanny.  Those numbers showed more layoffs.

But then, for the second method, they call 60,000 households and survey individuals. Apparently, that gave us some better news.

But where do they get the rest? The ones who don't work for large companies that submit payroll numbers? The ones who only have cell phones and can't be surveyed? 

How do they accurately count the large and growing number of independent contractors who don't get a payroll, don't work for the government, and hope they aren't working for a non-profit.  Indeed, they hope they are working for themselves.

And what about all the home-based businesses, the startup entrepreneurs with no employees outside themselves, and the laid off workers contracting back to their former employers. Who asks THEM how they are doing?

Take these numbers with a large grain of salt.
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1 comment

Feb 06, 2010
Tim FitzGerald said...
I could not agree more. In my mind, nothing more than facts can stifle any argument but they must be agreeable, undeniable facts...If we are debating how the numbers are tabulated, the discussion goes on forever. Good for you to call into question the validity of the numbers if we can not get reasonable alignment.

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